Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Indian Stock Market!!!
Over the past few weeks I have been reading a lot of articles on the meteoric rise of the Sensex and how it shows that a Indian economy is really doing well and based on fundamental growth. I have been listening and reading statements from the FM that the Indian economy is strong. But is this really the case? After all it may not be!!!
If you look carefully at the boom of the stock markets most of the inflow of money was through FII's. Money was invested mainly through P-Notes. The fundamental question that one would ask then is "How long are the FII's going to invest? What si the source of the money invested through the P-Notes?" Well, both the above questions are very difficult to answer simply because nobody knows the mentality of the FII's who one day invest and the nest they pull out. About the source of the money flowing in through P-Notes, this also cannot be answered because the very nature of this instrument if such that the source cannot be traced back. There has been a long debate going on (i think for the past 5-6years) about the usage of P-Notes. A couple of weeks back the SEBI had issued a statement that they will regulate the flow of money through P-notes and the FII's hwould be registered. The next day the stock markets carshed by about 1700 points within a couple of minutes of trading and the markets had to be closed. Since then the stance of SEBI on P-Notes has weakened and they still continue to be a source of inflow of money into the markets.
The GDP of India was earlier in the year said to touch double digits for the first time thanks to the numbers shown by various sectors. But, as the year went on the GDP kept getting revised and it now stands somewhere in the range of 9 - 9.3%. If we check on the IIP (the industrial index for production) all the sectors have shown lesser growth compared to last year. Infact this is seen for both the period April to September. When the figures of August came out most of the analysts said that this was just a one-off case and should not be taken seriously. But we are seeing similar if not worse figures for September as well. The growth rate has nearlly halved when compared to the previous fiscal. So, if the case is that all the sectors are doing badly then what fundamental backing are we talking about? If the economy is really doing well then why GDP keeps getting revised to lower numbers? Why do we keep reading articles of economic slow down?
This brings us back to the fundamental question: Is the Sensex a true reflection of the Indian economy? My take on this is that till the levels of about 14K it was but post this mark the Sensex is not a true reflector of the state of the Indian economy.
Should we invest at this time? Should we sell our shares and make the profit?
My take on the second question is: "Make hay when the sun shines" If you are making profit then sell and make the money.
Should you invest now? You can invest in the markets but don’t expect huge returns, basically don't be greedy. Don't expect big returns in short time. Invest in stocks which have a fundamental backing. Do your research before investing. Don't worry if the stock is not very highly valuated at this current time. Look at the business the company is in and the figures it has shown.
Invest with a long - term perspective and invest in fundamental stocks!!!
P.S: You may feel that this post is not complete in terms of it not being very comprehensive and without statistics. I am sure you will get these numbers in many articles. But I just wanted to highlight some of the points which I am researching / reading on and you can do the same.
Wednesday, November 07, 2007
Happy Diwali!!!
Hail Sir Alex!!!
Friday, December 29, 2006
A post after Long – the last for the year!!!
The last post I had written was on the Football world cup. And yes I did get a new TV (SONY Flat screen 21”) especially for the World Cup because being a football freak this was a tournament I wasn’t going to miss. And what a tournament it was. It had all the goals and all the drama. The Rooney sending off and yes of course the well documented Zidane Head butt. It was a tournament where the stars of Brazil and England just disappointed. But at the end of it all the side most thought wouldn’t win but a very deserving side Italy lifted the world cup.
Well the world cup came and went and my search for a project came to an end. I got into a pretty decent project and for the next 6 months I was involved in the project. I had my apprehensions in the beginning as to whether it would be good and whether I would be able to do well. Learnt a lot of things in the project. Had a couple of iffy moments in the project but overall it was a good learning experience.
In between all this the EPL season kicked off and what a season it has been. Brilliant goals and some absolutely breathtaking football. Have tried to make it a point to watch the games every week. Well have not totally succeeded at it but still working hard at it. And yes of course nice to Manchester United at the top of the league. Cristiano Ronaldo has been absolutely awesome. If you ask me he has been the best player this season. The title race will surely go down to the wire and it will be interesting to watch how it progresses next year.
Dad retired in September and since then it has been a tough task to try and keep him occupied. He started getting very tense because he did not get an extension from his last employer and he really had some expectation from them. Well, now he has started searching at various other places and hopefully something should fall in place at the turn of the year.
Mom wanted to continue working for the next 3-4 years and hence wanted to continue staying at Managlore. So the topic that came up was whether to buy a house or to rent one. After long deliberation and repeated fights we finally bought a flat in Mangalore. It’s a 2 bedroom house, 875 sq.ft and is on the 9th floor. Both Mom and Dad are happy with it. Initially I was not happy at buying the house but then finally decided that if that’s what makes them happy then so be it.
We celebrated my dad’s 60th birthday on Sep 9th at Thrucadayur temple. It was a great feeling and my parents were very happy. About 20 of my relatives made it to the function. It was well appreciated on all counts and we were happy giving our parents a happy memory. My sisters and I were just happy that we were able to do something for our parents who have done so much for us.
Topics of marriage have been talked about at home. But for now I have laid such topics to rest by saying that I am not interested. May be there is something in store at the turn of the year. I will keep you guys posted.
Towards the end of my project I was getting very jittery as to how much time I would have to spend on the bench and so on and if I do get a project where would it be. Well all such things were laid to rest pretty soon. Within 10 days after my project came to an end I was told of an opportunity of a new project in Bangalore and I have been slotted into that assignment. As of today it’s for 4- months but could extend to well over a year. Lets see how things go. Have been in this project for the last 1month and it has been a learning experience so far. Let see what’s in store.
Couple of my friends got married this year. Chintan & Akanksha in April and Sujay & Rachitha in November. Had been to both the weddings. Ha a really good times. Some more lined up next year. Priya, Chalapathy and Dipti in Jan, Bhadra & DC in Feb. Will write about them at the appropriate time.
One thing that hasn’t changed yet is the travel on Hosur Road day in and day out. It’s definitely a challenge but one we have got used to. Work is on to construct a new elevated highway and I am sure that when a work starts off in full sing for the construction of the flyover we all are going to have some really long and irritating drives back home.
Well 2006 has been a pretty good year for me. Lets se what 2007 has in store. Hopefully I will write more next year.
Here’s me signing off in 2006, wishing all you guys a Happy and Prosperous New Year.
Friday, June 02, 2006
Here comes the World Cup and there goes my TV!!
I am a football fan and closely follow the English and Spanish league apart from of course the UEFA Cup and Champions League. But none more than the event that happens once in 4 years when the great footballers in their country’s clothes walk out on the football pitch to defend their goals like soldiers in the thick of battle. The world cup is not short of any drama. Goals disallowed because of some intervention by the Prince of the country, spectacular 35 yard strikes, sensational dribbles, the softest of touches turning in to the goal that crowned the country champions, superb athletic team work, sheer class and individual skills, different styles of play. All the great players, Pele, Platini, Socrates, Maradonna, Kruyf, Van Basten, George Best, Ronaldo, Romario, Beckham, Gerrard, Ronaldinho etc., both past and present alike You name it and you get to see it at the World Cup.
With just over a week left to the start of the World Cup that I have been looking forward to, my TV just conked off. There was a sudden spurt of high voltage in our apartment the day before and well there goes my TV. I had a stabilizer and still this happened. Wonder how much excess current would haven flown. I had taken this TV on rent about 8 months back and now I have decided to give it back this Saturday instead of repairing and using it.
Whether I buy a new one?? Hmm… will be known in the next few days!!
Thursday, June 01, 2006
Book Review: The Kite Runner – By Khaled Hosseini
The book deals with a story of two friends Amir and Hassan and starts off in the back-drop of
Khaled very clearly brings out how the changes happen in the relationship between the two boys and he has blended this change with the changes happening to
Amir and Hassan have a very nice childhood. Amir longs for his father’s love and his aim in life is to win the prestigious kite competition in order to get his father love. Hassan is ready to do anything for his friend Amir. All goes on well until one day something very disturbing happens and the entire relationship changes.
All the time Amir finds ways to redeem himself from the past, but it just keeps coming back to haunt him. He flees to
Amir returns to
The book brings out a lot of emotions very well. There are many incidents in the book which make you feel very sad and nearly bring a lump in your throat. The author also brings out a subtle message that things happen for the good and one always gets a chance to redeem oneself. It left to the individual how he wants. One can visualise the characters very well.
Overall and very well written book and a must read for everyone.
About the author: Khaled Hosseini was born in
Monday, May 29, 2006
The Monsoons are here!!!
The wait is finally over. The scorching heat will be gone at least for a few months. It is that time of the year when you get to drench yourself in the pouring rain. Here come the “Monsoons”. Yes, you heard it right. The South-West monsoons have hit the Indian coast and are well on schedule. Infact ahead of schedule by 6 days. Kerala and parts of coastal Karnataka have already started experiencing torrential downpour. The speed of the monsoons winds is said to be very high and so they would engulf the whole country in their charm and might within the next one month.
The “Monsoons” have always fascinated me. The way the cloud and wind formation take place and how they ensure that they strike the Indian Sub-continent at roughly the same time year after year. They are truly the bread and butter of many an Indian soul. They ensure that nearly 2/3rds of
Come the monsoons and soon drops the mercury levels bringing a smile on everyone’s face. It has been overcast here in
The arrival of the monsoons will ensure the filling up of rivers and lakes. Ensure greenery all around. Come September when the Monsoons have nearly come to an end we will get to visit many of the scenic places and hopefully get to have a nature shower in the waterfalls.
I am truly looking forward to a rain filled next few months.